Maplebear Inc.
CARTdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Maplebear Inc. earns about -17% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 324% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.86 and $135.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.83B1 | $2.55B2 | $3.04B3 | $3.38B3 | $3.74B3 |
| Net income | −$73M4 | $428M5 | −$1.62B6 | $457M6 | $447M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$204M7 | $277M8 | $586M9 | $687M9 | $971M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $13M10 | $24M11 | $54M12 | $64M12 | $61M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$217M7 | $253M8 | $532M9 | $623M9 | $910M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.15B13 | $1.51B14 | $2.14B15 | $1.28B15 | $637M15 |
| Diluted shares | 65.9M | 101.5M | 130.6M | 289.2M | 279.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $90.05 of net worth that earned you $15.99 and generated $32.54 of cash last year.
It earned about -17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 324% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.86 and $135.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$623M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$623M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$428M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $34.11 |
| Base | 20.0% | $74.92 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $74.92 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579091-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579091-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579091-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579091-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579091-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579091-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579091-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579091-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579091-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579091-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579091-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579091-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579091-24-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579091-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579091-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)