MeritValue

Cars.com Inc.

CARSdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Cars.com Inc. earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.27 and $31.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$623.7M1$653.9M2$689.2M3$719.2M3$723.2M3
Net income$10.8M4$17.2M5$118.4M6$48.2M6$20.1M6
Operating cash flow$138M7$128.5M8$136.7M9$152.5M9$151.6M9
Capital expenditure$1.45M10$1.83M11$1.28M12$3M12$4.29M12
Free cash flow (derived)$136.6M7$126.7M8$135.4M9$149.5M9$147.4M9
Total debt$943.8M13$953.6M14$973.2M15$915.3M16$906.5M16
Cash & equivalents$39.1M17$31.7M18$39.2M19$50.7M20$56.2M20
Diluted shares71.3M69.6M68.2M67.4M63.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$74.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$143.29

10 shares is a claim on $74.69 of net worth that earned you $3.17 and generated $23.29 of cash last year, against $143.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -1%FY23 -1%FY24 2%FY25 0%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.27 and $31.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$31.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$147.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$147.4M
Earnings Power Value
$3.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.64
Base5.2%$27.94
Bull10.2%$37.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018824 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076546 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018824 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076546 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018824 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076546 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018824 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076546 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004093 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018824 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076546 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018824 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076546 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)