MeritValue

CARRIER GLOBAL Corp

CARRdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

CARRIER GLOBAL Corp earns about 32% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.25 and $80.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$20.6B1$17.3B2$19B3$22.5B3$21.7B3
Net income$1.7B4$3.53B5$1.35B6$5.6B6$1.48B6
Operating cash flow$2.24B7$1.74B8$2.61B9$563M9$2.51B9
Capital expenditure$344M10$317M11$439M12$519M12$392M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.89B7$1.43B8$2.17B9$44M9$2.12B9
Total debt$183M13$140M14$51M15$13.6B16$12.3B16
Cash & equivalents$2.99B17$3.3B18$9.85B19$3.97B19$1.56B19
Diluted shares890.3M861.2M853.0M911.7M862.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$163.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$142.23

10 shares is a claim on $163.82 of net worth that earned you $17.21 and generated $24.59 of cash last year, against $142.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
32% avg · 5y
FY21 45%FY22 69%FY23 —FY24 6%FY25 8%

It earned about 32% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 6603% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.25 and $80.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$80.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.1%
  • fcfBase$2.12B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$50.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.1%
  • fcfBase$2.12B
Earnings Power Value
$20.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.7B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $50.4
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.26
Base14.1%$50.4
Bull19.1%$64.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783180-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783180-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783180-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783180-24-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783180-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783180-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783180-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783180-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783180-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783180-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783180-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783180-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783180-23-000012 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783180-24-000009 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783180-25-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001783180-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783180-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783180-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783180-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)