MeritValue

CARLSMED, INC.

CARLdata completeness 100%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

CARLSMED, INC. earns about -30% on equity, but has diluted owners by 250% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.2M1$50.5M1
Net income−$24.3M2−$29.6M2
Operating cash flow−$25.5M3−$29M3
Capital expenditure$180,0004$642,0004
Free cash flow (derived)−$25.6M3−$29.6M3
Total debt$15.4M5$15.3M5
Cash & equivalents$40.1M6$85.8M6
Diluted shares4.1M14.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$69.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$10.79

10 shares is a claim on $69.52 of net worth that earned you −$20.84 and generated −$20.83 of cash last year, against $10.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-30% avg · 2y
FY24 —FY25 -30%

It earned an average -30% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+250% shares · 2y

Share count is up 250% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071551 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071551 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071551 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071551 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071551 (LongTermDebt)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071551 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)