MeritValue

Carter Bankshares, Inc.

CAREdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Carter Bankshares, Inc. earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.47 and $24.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.5M1$18.3M2$17.3M3$19.4M3$20.3M3
Net income$31.6M4$50.1M5$23.4M6$24.5M6$31.4M6
Operating cash flow$77.5M7$70.8M8$46.7M9$36.9M9$39.9M9
Capital expenditure$8.48M10$5.89M11$9.8M12$8.13M12$8.06M12
Free cash flow (derived)$69.1M7$64.9M8$36.9M9$28.8M9$31.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$277.8M13$46.9M14$54.5M14$131.2M14$105.2M14
Diluted shares26.3M24.6M23.2M22.8M22.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$186.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.16
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $186.89 of net worth that earned you $13.97 and generated $14.16 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
36% avg · 5y
FY21 40%FY22 24%FY23 28%FY24 46%FY25 43%

It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.47 and $24.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$31.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$24.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$31.8M
Earnings Power Value
$14.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$31.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $24.92
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.92
Base0.0%$24.92
Bull5.0%$29.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001829576-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829576-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829576-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001829576-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829576-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829576-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001829576-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829576-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829576-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001829576-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829576-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829576-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001829576-22-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829576-26-000018 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)