MeritValue

AVIS BUDGET GROUP, INC.

CARdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

AVIS BUDGET GROUP, INC. earns about 13% on invested capital, and has bought back 47% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $378.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.31B1$12B2$12B3$11.8B3$11.7B3
Net income$1.29B4$2.76B5$1.63B6−$1.82B6−$889M6
Operating cash flow$3.49B7$4.71B8$3.83B9$3.52B9$3.3B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$8.04B10$4.7B11$4.82B12$5.39B13$6.07B13
Cash & equivalents$534M14$570M15$555M16$534M17$519M17
Diluted shares66.1M48.4M38.8M35.5M35.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$888.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$252.56
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,725.28

10 shares is a claim on −$888.92 of net worth that earned you −$252.56 last year, against $1,725.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 86%FY23 48%FY24 -71%FY25 -17%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−47% shares · 5y

Share count is down 47% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 24% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$378.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.29B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000723612-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000723612-25-000005 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000723612-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000723612-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000723612-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000723612-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000723612-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000723612-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000723612-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000723612-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000723612-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000723612-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000723612-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000723612-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000723612-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000723612-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000723612-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)