MeritValue

Canaan Inc.

CANdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Canaan Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 173% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$772.8M1$651.5M2$211.5M3$269.3M3$529.7M3
Net income$309.1M4$69.9M5−$414.2M6−$249.8M6−$210.3M6
Operating cash flow$202.3M7−$182.6M8−$123.6M9−$199.3M9−$271.2M9
Capital expenditure$5.65M10$17.7M11$3.31M12$19.3M12$24.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$196.6M7−$200.3M8−$126.9M9−$218.6M9−$295.8M9
Total debt———$23.9M13$52.2M13
Cash & equivalents$421.2M14—$96.2M15$96.5M16$80.8M16
Diluted shares2.58B2.58B2.58B4.07B7.04B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.3
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.07

10 shares is a claim on $0.62 of net worth that earned you −$0.3 and generated −$0.42 of cash last year, against $0.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 255%FY22 12%FY23 -146%FY24 -70%FY25 -40%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+173% shares · 5y

Share count is up 173% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 118% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-048300 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000805 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043786 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-048300 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000805 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043786 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-048300 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000805 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043786 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-048300 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000805 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043786 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043786 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-133564 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000805 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043786 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)