MeritValue

Callaway Golf Co

CALYdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

Callaway Golf Co earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.28 and $21.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.13B1$4B2$2.13B3$2.08B3$2.06B3
Net income$322M4$157.9M5$95M6−$1.45B6−$409.3M6
Operating cash flow$278.3M7−$35.1M8$364.7M9$382M9$334M9
Capital expenditure$322.3M10$532.3M11$50M12$48.7M12$31.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$44M7−$567.4M8$314.7M9$333.3M9$302.2M9
Total debt$2.08B13$2.59B14$3.13B15$2.88B16$2.88B16
Cash & equivalents$352.2M17$180.2M18$393.5M18$445M19$903.2M19
Diluted shares176.9M201.3M201.1M199.3M185.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$111.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$154.91

10 shares is a claim on $111.41 of net worth that earned you −$22.04 and generated $16.27 of cash last year, against $154.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 2%FY25 1%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 38% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.28 and $21.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$21.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$314.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$314.7M
Earnings Power Value
$5.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$95M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.44
Base5.0%$19.26
Bull10.0%$26.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000837465-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000837465-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000837465-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000837465-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000837465-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000837465-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000837465-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000837465-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000837465-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000837465-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000837465-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000837465-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000837465-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000837465-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000837465-25-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000837465-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000837465-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000837465-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000837465-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)