MeritValue

CALIX, INC

CALXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CALIX, INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.38 and $15.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$679.4M1$867.8M2$1.04B3$831.5M3$1B3
Net income$238.4M4$41M5$29.3M6−$29.7M6$17.9M6
Operating cash flow$56.8M7$27.2M8$56.3M9$68.4M9$135M9
Capital expenditure$10.5M10$14.1M11$17.9M12$18.1M12$19.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$46.3M7$13.1M8$38.4M9$50.3M9$115.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$51.3M13$79.1M14$63.4M15$43.2M16$143.1M16
Diluted shares67.9M68.9M69.3M65.9M69.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$123.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.67
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $123.98 of net worth that earned you $2.58 and generated $16.67 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 7%FY23 4%FY24 -3%FY25 2%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.38 and $15.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.9%
  • fcfBase$50.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.9%
  • fcfBase$50.3M
Earnings Power Value
$4.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.44
Base4.9%$14.91
Bull9.9%$17.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001406666-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001406666-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001406666-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001406666-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001406666-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001406666-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001406666-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001406666-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001406666-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001406666-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001406666-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001406666-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001406666-23-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001406666-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001406666-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001406666-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)