MeritValue

CAL-MAINE FOODS INC

CALMdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CAL-MAINE FOODS INC earns about 32% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.68 and $412.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.78B1$3.15B2$2.33B3$4.26B3$2.91B3
Net income$132.7M4$758M5$277.9M6$1.22B6$316.7M6
Operating cash flow$126.2M7$863M8$451.4M9$1.22B9$479.8M9
Capital expenditure$72.4M10$136.6M11$147.1M12$161.3M12$151.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$53.8M7$726.4M8$304.3M9$1.06B9$328.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$59.1M13$292.8M14$237.9M15$499.4M16$107.2M16
Diluted shares48.7M48.8M48.9M48.9M47.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$551
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$66.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$68.76
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $551 of net worth that earned you $66.28 and generated $68.76 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
32% avg · 5y
FY22 13%FY23 57%FY24 18%FY25 59%FY26 13%

It earned about 32% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.68 and $412.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$412.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$328.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$226.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$328.5M
Earnings Power Value
$68.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$316.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$90.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $226.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$100.48
Base20.0%$226.42
Bull20.0%$226.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0001562762-24-000177 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0001562762-25-000170 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0001562762-26-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0001562762-24-000177 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0001562762-25-000170 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0001562762-26-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0001562762-24-000177 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0001562762-25-000170 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0001562762-26-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0001562762-24-000177 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0001562762-25-000170 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0001562762-26-000080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0001562762-23-000287 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0001562762-24-000177 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0001562762-25-000170 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)