MeritValue

CalciMedica, Inc.

CALCdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CalciMedica, Inc. earns about -258% on equity, and has bought back 29% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$35.8M1−$7.82M2−$34.4M3−$13.7M4−$29.6M4
Operating cash flow−$31.5M5−$11.8M6−$25.7M7−$21.1M8−$21.2M8
Capital expenditure$488,0009$4,00010$78,00011$8,00012$28,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$32M5−$11.8M6−$25.8M7−$21.2M8−$21.2M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$13.4M13$1.33M14$5.53M15$7.94M16$11.5M16
Diluted shares21.2M82,2454.5M11.2M15.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$4.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.69
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.13
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$4.42 of net worth that earned you −$19.69 and generated −$14.13 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-258% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -421%FY24 -95%FY25 —

It earned an average -258% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−29% shares · 5y

Share count is down 29% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006795 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088147 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006795 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088147 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006795 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038064 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088147 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006795 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088147 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)