MeritValue

CALERES INC

CALdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CALERES INC earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.43 and $43.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$2.78B1$2.97B2$2.82B3$2.72B3$2.76B3
Net income$137M4$181.7M5$171.4M6$107.3M6−$6.69M6
Operating cash flow$168.4M7$125.9M8$200.2M9$104.6M9$103.2M9
Capital expenditure$18.4M10$55.9M11$44.6M12$49.1M12$63.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$150M7$70M8$155.6M9$55.4M9$39.4M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$30.1M14$33.7M15$21.4M16$29.6M17$29.8M17
Diluted shares37.1M35.4M34.2M33.5M32.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$185.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.13
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $185.08 of net worth that earned you −$2.06 and generated $12.13 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY22 48%FY23 43%FY24 28%FY25 17%FY26 -4%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.43 and $43.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$55.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$55.4M
Earnings Power Value
$43.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$137M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.26
Base0.0%$25.26
Bull5.0%$31.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000014707-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000014707-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000014707-26-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000014707-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000014707-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000014707-26-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000014707-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000014707-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000014707-26-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000014707-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000014707-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000014707-26-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000014707-22-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000014707-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000014707-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000014707-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000014707-26-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)