MeritValue

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC

CAKEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.43 and $121.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2023FY 2024FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.93B1$3.3B2$3.44B3$3.58B3$3.75B3
Net income$72.4M4$43.1M5$101.4M6$156.8M6$148.4M6
Operating cash flow$213M7$161.9M8$218.4M9$268.3M9$301.3M9
Capital expenditure$66.9M10$112.5M11$151.6M12$160.4M12$146.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$146.1M7$49.5M8$66.8M9$108M9$155.1M9
Total debt$466M13$468M14$470M15$452.1M16$630.1M16
Cash & equivalents$189.6M17$114.8M18$56.3M19$84.2M20$215.7M20
Diluted shares48.5M50.4M49.0M49.0M48.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$89.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$129.78

10 shares is a claim on $89.89 of net worth that earned you $30.57 and generated $31.94 of cash last year, against $129.78 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY23 5%FY24 14%FY24 19%FY25 17%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 35% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.43 and $121.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$121.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$108M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$108M
Earnings Power Value
$21.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$101.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.82
Base20.0%$62.93
Bull20.0%$62.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001104659-24-027565 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001410578-25-000195 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001104659-26-018643 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001104659-24-027565 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001410578-25-000195 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001104659-26-018643 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001104659-24-027565 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001410578-25-000195 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001104659-26-018643 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001104659-24-027565 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001410578-25-000195 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001104659-26-018643 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001104659-23-026072 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001104659-24-027565 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001410578-25-000195 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018643 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001104659-23-026072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001104659-24-027565 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001410578-25-000195 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018643 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)