MeritValue

CARDINAL HEALTH INC

CAHdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CARDINAL HEALTH INC earns about 34% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.16 and $207.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$162.5B1$181.3B2$205B3$226.8B3$222.6B3
Net income$611M4−$938M5$330M6$852M6$1.56B6
Operating cash flow$2.43B7$3.18B8$2.84B9$3.76B9$2.4B9
Capital expenditure$400M10$387M11$481M12$511M12$547M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.03B7$2.79B8$2.36B9$3.25B9$1.85B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$3.41B13$4.72B14$4.08B15$5.13B16$3.87B16
Diluted shares294.0M279.0M262.0M247.0M242.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$114.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$64.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$76.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$114.92 of net worth that earned you $64.5 and generated $76.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
34% avg · 5y
FY21 34%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about 34% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.16 and $207.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$207.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$2.36B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$190.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$2.36B
Earnings Power Value
$26.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$611M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $190.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$155.52
Base5.2%$190.85
Bull10.2%$231.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000721371-23-000060 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000721371-23-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000721371-23-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000721371-23-000060 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000721371-22-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-23-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)