MeritValue

CARDINAL HEALTH INC

CAHdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $36.13 and $423.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$181.3B1$205B2$226.8B3$222.6B3$254.2B3
Net income−$938M4$330M5$852M6$1.56B6$1.71B6
Operating cash flow$3.18B7$2.84B8$3.76B9$2.4B9$5.17B9
Capital expenditure$387M10$481M11$511M12$547M12$649M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.79B7$2.36B8$3.25B9$1.85B9$4.53B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$4.72B13$4.08B14$5.13B15$3.87B16$4.86B16
Diluted shares279.0M262.0M247.0M242.0M237.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$121.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$72.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$190.93
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$121.65 of net worth that earned you $72.32 and generated $190.93 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.13 and $423.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$423.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$3.25B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$321.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$3.25B
Earnings Power Value
$36.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$852M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.2%
Discount rate (WACC)9.22%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $321.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$208.11
Base11.2%$321.96
Bull16.2%$388.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000721371-26-000038 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000721371-26-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000721371-26-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000721371-26-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000721371-23-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000721371-24-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000721371-25-000079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000721371-26-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)