MeritValue

CONAGRA BRANDS INC.

CAGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

CONAGRA BRANDS INC. earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.65 and $129.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$11.5B1$12.3B2$12.1B3$11.6B3$11.3B3
Net income$888.2M4$683.6M5$347.2M6$1.15B6−$1.92B6
Operating cash flow$1.18B7$995.4M8$2.02B9$1.69B9$1.4B9
Capital expenditure$464.4M10$362.2M11$388.1M12$389.3M12$423.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$712.9M7$633.2M8$1.63B9$1.3B9$978.7M9
Total debt$17.8B13$17.8B14$16B15$15.3B16$14.5B16
Cash & equivalents$83.3M17$93.3M18$77.7M19$68M20$218M20
Diluted shares482.2M480.7M480.0M479.7M479.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$132.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$40
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$302.68

10 shares is a claim on $132.73 of net worth that earned you −$40 and generated $20.43 of cash last year, against $302.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY23 1%FY24 0%FY25 3%FY26 -8%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 18% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.65 and $129.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$129.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$57.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
Earnings Power Value
$14.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$683.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $57.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.53
Base20.0%$57.59
Bull20.0%$57.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001558370-24-009764 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001558370-25-009180 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001104659-26-083905 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001558370-24-009764 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001558370-25-009180 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001104659-26-083905 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001558370-24-009764 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001558370-25-009180 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001104659-26-083905 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001558370-24-009764 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001558370-25-009180 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001104659-26-083905 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001437749-23-019879 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001558370-24-009764 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001558370-25-009180 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-25 · accession 0001104659-26-083905 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001437749-23-019879 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001558370-24-009764 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001558370-25-009180 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-25 · accession 0001104659-26-083905 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)