MeritValue

Candel Therapeutics, Inc.

CADLdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Candel Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -110% on equity, but has diluted owners by 181% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$125,0001$125,0002———
Net income−$36.1M3−$18.8M4−$37.9M5−$55.2M6−$38.2M6
Operating cash flow−$22.2M7−$31.4M8−$34.2M9−$27M10−$38.3M10
Capital expenditure$1.84M11$1.3M12$457,00013$16,00014$587,00014
Free cash flow (derived)−$24.1M7−$32.7M8−$34.7M9−$27M10−$38.9M10
Total debt$560,00015—$20.5M16$11.6M17$018
Cash & equivalents$82.6M19$70.1M20$35.4M21$102.7M22$119.7M22
Diluted shares18.9M28.8M28.9M31.7M53.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.21
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $9.8 of net worth that earned you −$7.21 and generated −$7.34 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-110% avg · 5y
FY21 -56%FY22 -39%FY23 -298%FY24 -83%FY25 -74%

It earned an average -110% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+181% shares · 5y

Share count is up 181% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010760 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037637 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010760 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037637 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038803 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103134 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010760 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037637 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038803 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010760 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037637 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038803 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103134 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004857 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037637 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038803 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103134 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010760 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037637 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038803 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103134 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)