MeritValue

CAMDEN NATIONAL CORP

CACdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

CAMDEN NATIONAL CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.51 and $37.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$32M1$33.3M2$33.6M3$35.7M3$41.7M3
Net income$69M4$61.4M5$43.4M6$53M6$65.2M6
Operating cash flow$142.7M7$105.2M8$67.5M9$60.9M9$63.9M9
Capital expenditure$1.85M10$2.18M11$2.62M12$5.58M12$5.71M12
Free cash flow (derived)$140.9M7$103M8$64.9M9$55.4M9$58.2M9
Total debt$211.6M13$265.2M14$485.6M15$500.6M16$581.8M16
Cash & equivalents$220.6M17$75.4M18$99.8M18$215M18$97.5M18
Diluted shares15.0M14.7M14.6M14.6M17.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$410.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$342.69

10 shares is a claim on $410.29 of net worth that earned you $38.38 and generated $34.28 of cash last year, against $342.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 13%FY23 14%FY24 20%FY25 20%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 175% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.51 and $37.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$58.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$58.2M
Earnings Power Value
$37.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$61.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.17
Base0.0%$20.17
Bull5.0%$31.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750686-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750686-25-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750686-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750686-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750686-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750686-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750686-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750686-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750686-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750686-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750686-25-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750686-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750686-23-000033 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750686-24-000025 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750686-25-000044 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000750686-26-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750686-25-000044 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750686-26-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)