MeritValue

CITIGROUP INC

Cdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

CITIGROUP INC earns about 19% on invested capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $78.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$71.9B1$75.3B2$78.1B3$80.7B3$85.2B3
Net income$22B4$14.8B5$9.23B6$12.7B6$14.3B6
Operating cash flow$47.1B7$25.1B8−$73.4B9−$19.7B9−$67.6B9
Capital expenditure$4.12B10$5.63B11$6.58B12$6.5B12$6.52B12
Free cash flow (derived)$43B7$19.4B8−$80B9−$26.2B9−$74.2B9
Total debt$298.4B13$344.2B14$344.3B15$364.7B16$387.6B16
Cash & equivalents$262B17$342B18$260.9B18$276.5B18$349.6B18
Diluted shares2.05B1.96B1.96B1.94B1.87B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,133.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$76.38
Free cash flow it threw off
−$395.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,069.54

10 shares is a claim on $1,133.37 of net worth that earned you $76.38 and generated −$395.88 of cash last year, against $2,069.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 18%FY23 23%FY24 18%FY25 23%

It earned an average 19% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$78.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$133.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831001-24-000033 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831001-25-000067 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831001-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831001-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831001-25-000067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831001-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831001-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831001-25-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831001-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831001-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831001-25-000067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831001-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831001-23-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831001-24-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831001-25-000067 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000831001-26-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831001-25-000067 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831001-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)