MeritValue

Baozun Inc.

BZUNdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Baozun Inc. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.11 and $9.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.47B1$1.22B2$1.24B3$1.29B4$1.42B5
Net income−$32.3M6−$94.7M7−$39.2M8−$25.4M9−$34.6M10
Operating cash flow−$15.1M11$55.5M12$63.1M13$13.9M14$60.1M15
Capital expenditure$44.8M16$30M17$23.2M18$18.1M19$15.2M20
Free cash flow (derived)−$59.9M11$25.5M12$39.9M13−$4.22M14$44.9M15
Total debt$359.1M21$147.3M22$157.1M23$167.3M24$172.7M25
Cash & equivalents$722.9M26$310.9M27$302.8M28$176.6M29$129.7M30
Diluted shares216.4M183.3M178.5M179.7M173.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$30.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.96

10 shares is a claim on $30.03 of net worth that earned you −$2 and generated $2.59 of cash last year, against $9.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -14%FY23 -5%FY24 -2%FY25 -4%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 52% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.11 and $9.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.1%
  • fcfBase$39.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.1%
  • fcfBase$39.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.11
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.99
Base16.1%$6.11
Bull20.0%$7.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001089 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000782 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049045 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000824 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047177 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001089 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000782 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000824 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047177 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001089 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000782 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000824 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047177 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001089 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000782 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000824 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047177 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001089 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000782 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049045 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000824 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  25. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047177 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  26. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000782 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  28. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  29. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000824 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  30. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047177 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)