MeritValue

BEAZER HOMES USA INC

BZHdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BEAZER HOMES USA INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.82 and $48.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.14B1$2.32B2$2.21B3$2.33B3$2.37B3
Net income$122M4$220.7M5$158.6M6$140.2M6$45.6M6
Operating cash flow$31.7M7$81.1M8$178.1M9−$137.5M9$32M9
Capital expenditure$14.6M10$15M11$20.3M12$22.4M12$28.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$17M7$66M8$157.7M9−$159.9M9$3.48M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$274.1M13$251.8M14$386.3M14$242.6M14$218.6M14
Diluted shares30.4M30.8M30.7M31.0M30.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$416.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.16
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $416.15 of net worth that earned you $15.19 and generated $1.16 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 28%FY22 32%FY23 22%FY24 14%FY25 4%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.82 and $48.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.48M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.48M
Earnings Power Value
$48.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$140.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.94
Base0.0%$8.94
Bull5.0%$9.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000915840-23-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000915840-24-000069 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000915840-25-000075 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000915840-23-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000915840-24-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000915840-25-000075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000915840-23-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000915840-24-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000915840-25-000075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000915840-23-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000915840-24-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000915840-25-000075 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000915840-24-000069 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000915840-25-000075 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)