MeritValue

Blaize Holdings, Inc.

BZAIdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Blaize Holdings, Inc. earns about -531% on equity, but has diluted owners by 497% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$1.55M1$38.6M1
Net income$1.67M2$1.34M3−$61.2M4−$206.9M4
Operating cash flow−$1.37M5−$2.34M6−$53.5M7−$73.8M7
Capital expenditure——$902,0008$788,0008
Free cash flow (derived)——−$54.4M7−$74.5M7
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$22,2329$09$50.2M10$45.8M10
Diluted shares——17.5M104.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.15
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $3.74 of net worth that earned you −$19.84 and generated −$7.15 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-531% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -531%

It earned an average -531% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+497% shares · 4y

Share count is up 497% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001871638-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000607 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-053870 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001871638-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000607 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-053870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001871638-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001871638-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-053870 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001871638-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)