MeritValue

Byrna Technologies Inc.

BYRNdata completeness 88%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Byrna Technologies Inc. earns about -9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.76 and $2.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$42.2M1$48M2$42.6M3$85.8M4$118.1M4
Net income−$3.28M5−$7.89M6−$8.19M7$12.8M8$9.69M8
Operating cash flow−$4.44M9−$13.8M10$3.89M11$11.7M12−$1.57M12
Capital expenditure$1.84M13$3.25M14$903,00015$2.35M16$7.62M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.28M9−$17.1M10$2.99M11$9.39M12−$9.2M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$56.3M17$20.1M18$20.5M19$16.8M20$13.7M20
Diluted shares19.6M22.4M21.9M23.1M24.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.81
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $27.23 of net worth that earned you $4.01 and generated −$3.81 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 -28%FY22 -23%FY23 -29%FY24 19%FY25 19%

It earned about -9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.76 and $2.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.99M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.99M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$4.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.76
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.34
Base5.0%$2.76
Bull10.0%$3.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001437749-23-002880 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001437749-24-004158 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001437749-25-003081 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001437749-26-003206 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001437749-23-002880 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001437749-24-004158 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001437749-25-003081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001437749-26-003206 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001437749-23-002880 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001437749-24-004158 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001437749-25-003081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001437749-26-003206 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001437749-23-002880 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001437749-24-004158 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001437749-25-003081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001437749-26-003206 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001437749-23-002880 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001437749-24-004158 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001437749-25-003081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001437749-26-003206 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)