MeritValue

BOYD GAMING CORP

BYDdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BOYD GAMING CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 28% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $65.58 and $77.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.37B1$3.56B2$3.74B3$3.93B3$4.09B3
Net income$463.8M4$639.4M5$620M6$578M6$1.84B6
Operating cash flow$1.01B7$976.1M8$914.5M9$957.1M9$976.7M9
Capital expenditure$199.5M10$269.2M11$374M12$400.4M12$588.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$811M7$707M8$540.6M9$556.7M9$388.5M9
Total debt$6.06B13$6.1B14$5.83B15$6.35B16$2.05B16
Cash & equivalents$344.6M17$283.5M18$304.3M18$316.7M18$353.4M18
Diluted shares114.1M109.0M101.4M93.3M81.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$319.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$225.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$250.33

10 shares is a claim on $319.22 of net worth that earned you $225.57 and generated $47.54 of cash last year, against $250.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 10%FY23 10%FY24 8%FY25 43%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−28% shares · 5y

Share count is down 28% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 66% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $65.58 and $77.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$65.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$540.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$540.6M
Earnings Power Value
$77.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$620M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$131.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$72.56
Base0.0%$72.56
Bull5.0%$95.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005525 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004757 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004908 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005525 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004757 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004908 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005525 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004757 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004908 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005525 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004757 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004908 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004538 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005525 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004757 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004908 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004757 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004908 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)