MeritValue

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund

BXSLdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund earns about 11% on equity, but has diluted owners by 59% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $25.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$460.4M1$404.6M2$612M3$694.1M3$563.5M3
Operating cash flow−$3.83B4$672.9M5$458.8M6−$2.53B6−$458.7M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$5.5B7$5.53B8$4.91B9$7.06B10$8.08B10
Cash & equivalents$102.9M11$131.3M12$154.9M13$229.6M14$289.6M14
Diluted shares144.5M166.1M167.6M201.4M229.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$272.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.59
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$352.59

10 shares is a claim on $272.52 of net worth that earned you $24.59 last year, against $352.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
11% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 10%FY23 12%FY24 11%FY25 9%

It earned an average 11% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+59% shares · 5y

Share count is up 59% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 47% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$25.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$563.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736035-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736035-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736035-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736035-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736035-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736035-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736035-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736035-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736035-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001736035-26-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736035-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736035-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736035-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001736035-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)