MeritValue

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC.

BXMTdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $14.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$854.7M1$1.34B1$2.04B1——
Net income$419.2M2$248.6M3$246.6M4−$204.1M4$109.6M4
Operating cash flow$382.5M5$396.8M6$458.8M7$366.5M7$275.9M7
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$15.1B8$17.6B9$16.5B10——
Cash & equivalents$551.2M11$291.3M12$350M13$323.5M14$452.5M14
Diluted shares151.5M170.6M172.7M173.8M171.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$204.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.41
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $204.66 of net worth that earned you $6.41 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 8%FY24 -5%FY25 4%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$14.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$246.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001061630-24-000029 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001061630-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001061630-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001061630-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001061630-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001061630-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001061630-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001061630-22-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001061630-23-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001061630-24-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001061630-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001061630-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001061630-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001061630-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)