BlueLinx Holdings Inc.
BXCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'
BlueLinx Holdings Inc. earns about 32% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.47 and $91.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.28B1 | $4.45B2 | $3.14B3 | $2.95B3 | $2.95B3 |
| Net income | $296.1M4 | $296.2M5 | $48.5M6 | $53.1M6 | $219,0006 |
| Operating cash flow | $145M7 | $400.3M8 | $306.3M9 | $85.2M9 | $59.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $14.4M10 | $35.9M11 | $27.5M12 | $40.1M12 | $26.9M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $130.6M7 | $364.4M8 | $278.8M9 | $45.1M9 | $32.9M9 |
| Total debt | $291.3M13 | $292.4M14 | $293.7M15 | $295.1M16 | $296.7M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $85.2M17 | $298.9M18 | $521.7M19 | $505.6M20 | $385.8M20 |
| Diluted shares | 9.9M | 9.4M | 9.0M | 8.6M | 8.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $767.9 of net worth that earned you $0.27 and generated $40.86 of cash last year, against $369.03 of debt.
It earned about 32% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.47 and $91.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$45.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$45.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$53.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $91.2 |
| Base | 0.0% | $91.2 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $110.58 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001301787-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001301787-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-011136 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001301787-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001301787-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-011136 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001301787-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001301787-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-011136 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001301787-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001301787-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-011136 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001301787-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001301787-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001301787-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-011136 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001301787-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001301787-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001301787-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-011136 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)