MeritValue

Blackstone Inc.

BXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Blackstone Inc. earns about 38% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.54 and $56.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$22.6B1$8.52B2$8.02B3$13.2B3$14.5B3
Net income$5.86B4$1.75B5$1.39B6$2.78B6$3.02B6
Operating cash flow$3.99B7$6.34B8$4.06B9$3.48B9$4.66B9
Capital expenditure$64.3M10$235.5M11$224.2M12$61.4M12$115.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.92B7$6.1B8$3.83B9$3.42B9$4.55B9
Total debt$7.86B13$12.5B14$11.6B15$11.5B16$12.6B17
Cash & equivalents$2.12B18$4.25B19$2.96B20$1.97B21$2.63B21
Diluted shares720.1M740.9M755.4M766.6M780.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$111.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$58.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$161.19

10 shares is a claim on $111.07 of net worth that earned you $38.7 and generated $58.28 of cash last year, against $161.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
38% avg · 5y
FY21 83%FY22 21%FY23 18%FY24 33%FY25 35%

It earned about 38% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 60% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.54 and $56.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.83B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$56.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.83B
Earnings Power Value
$36.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.78B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $56.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.51
Base0.0%$56.51
Bull5.0%$73.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-044485 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042469 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082531 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-044485 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042469 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082531 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-044485 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042469 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082531 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-044485 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042469 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082531 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-054433 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-048733 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-044485 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042469 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082531 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-048733 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-044485 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042469 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082531 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)