BW LPG Ltd

BWLPdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BW LPG Ltd earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.43 and $32.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue
Net income$227.4M1$470M2$354.3M2$242.3M2
Operating cash flow$505.3M3$513.4M4$749.1M4$567.4M4
Capital expenditure$46.2M5$116M6$602M6$182.3M6
Free cash flow (derived)$459.1M3$397.3M4$147.1M4$385.1M4
Total debt$412.3M7$942M8$853.1M8
Cash & equivalents$287.5M9$279.7M10$242M10
Diluted shares134.8M131.8M151.5M151.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$120.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$56.37

10 shares is a claim on $120.92 of net worth that earned you $16.01 and generated $25.45 of cash last year, against $56.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 4y
FY22 15%FY23 31%FY24 16%FY25 12%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 4y

Share count is up 12% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 107% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.43 and $32.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$385.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$385.1M
Earnings Power Value
$20.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$298.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.32
Base0.0%$32.32
Bull5.0%$41.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028922 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037215 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028922 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037215 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028922 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037215 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028922 (Borrowings)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037215 (Borrowings)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028922 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037215 (CashAndCashEquivalents)