MeritValue

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.

BWINdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. earns about -28% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 43% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$567.3M1$980.7M2$1.21B3$1.38B3$1.49B3
Net income−$30.6M4−$41.8M5−$90.1M6−$24.5M6−$33.8M6
Operating cash flow$40.1M7−$2.46M8$46,0009$51.5M9−$29.4M9
Capital expenditure$5.32M10$22M10$21.4M10$41M11$39.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)$34.8M7−$24.4M8−$21.3M9$10.4M9−$68.9M9
Total debt$8.52M12$8.51M13$10.2M14$8.4M15$12.6M15
Cash & equivalents$138.3M16$118.1M17$116.2M18$90M19$123.7M19
Diluted shares47.6M56.8M60.1M63.5M67.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$88.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.98
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.85

10 shares is a claim on $88.35 of net worth that earned you −$4.98 and generated −$10.15 of cash last year, against $1.85 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 -23%FY23 -49%FY24 -26%FY25 -28%

It earned an average -28% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+43% shares · 5y

Share count is up 43% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 48% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781755-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781755-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781755-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781755-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781755-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781755-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781755-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781755-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781755-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781755-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001781755-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781755-23-000006 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781755-24-000016 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781755-25-000017 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001781755-26-000018 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781755-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781755-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781755-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001781755-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)