MeritValue

Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.

BWFGdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. earns about 12% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.61 and $82.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$872,0001$1.07M2$1.63M3$1.96M4$2.83M4
Net income$26.6M5$37.4M6$36.7M7$9.77M8$35.2M8
Operating cash flow$34.6M9$82.7M10$31.9M11$29.9M12$28.3M12
Capital expenditure—$4.96M13$2.05M14$613,00015$1.14M15
Free cash flow (derived)—$77.7M10$29.9M11$29.3M12$27.1M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$344.7M16$355.7M17$269.2M18$307.5M18$224.9M18
Diluted shares7.8M7.6M7.6M7.7M7.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$385.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $385.23 of net worth that earned you $44.97 and generated $34.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
12% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 16%FY23 14%FY24 4%FY25 12%

It earned about 12% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.61 and $82.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$78.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$29.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$82.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$29.3M
Earnings Power Value
$46.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$62.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $82.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$82.27
Base0.0%$82.27
Bull5.0%$95.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001505732-23-000109 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001505732-24-000067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001505732-25-000052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001505732-26-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001505732-23-000109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001505732-24-000067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001505732-25-000052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001505732-26-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001505732-23-000109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001505732-24-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001505732-25-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001505732-26-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001505732-24-000067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001505732-25-000052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001505732-26-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001505732-24-000067 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001505732-25-000052 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001505732-26-000046 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)