MeritValue

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc

BWBdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.81 and $18.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$128.9M1$163.7M2$222.4M3$245.9M3$281.8M3
Net income$45.7M4$53.4M5$40M6$32.8M6$46.1M6
Operating cash flow$54.2M7$85M8$30M9$46.4M9$27.8M9
Capital expenditure$777,00010$1.63M11$2.97M12$4.08M12$5.85M12
Free cash flow (derived)$53.5M7$83.4M8$27M9$42.3M9$22M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$143.5M13$87M14$128.6M15$229.8M16$123.5M16
Diluted shares29.0M28.7M28.3M27.9M28.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$183.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $183.56 of net worth that earned you $16.36 and generated $7.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
36% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 26%FY23 43%FY24 49%FY25 38%

It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.81 and $18.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$27M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$27M
Earnings Power Value
$16.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$45.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.1
Base0.0%$18.1
Bull5.0%$21.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002663 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002317 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020063 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002663 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002317 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002663 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002317 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002663 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002317 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002993 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002663 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002317 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)