MeritValue

Bioventus Inc.

BVSdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Bioventus Inc. earns about -8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 52% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.36 and $29.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$430.9M1$512.1M2$512.3M3$573.3M3$568.1M3
Net income$19.4M4−$158.7M5−$156.2M6−$36.1M6$22.7M6
Operating cash flow$23M7−$13.5M8$15.3M9$38.8M9$74.7M9
Capital expenditure$13.5M10$1.48M11$7.36M12$1.01M12$2.56M12
Free cash flow (derived)$9.47M7−$15M8$7.98M9$37.8M9$72.1M9
Total debt$715.4M13$418.1M14$394.8M15$335.6M16$294M16
Cash & equivalents$43.9M17$30.2M18$37M19$41.6M20$51.2M20
Diluted shares45.5M61.4M62.6M64.5M68.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$26.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.46
Debt you’d be carrying
$42.65

10 shares is a claim on $26.71 of net worth that earned you $3.3 and generated $10.46 of cash last year, against $42.65 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -21%FY23 -18%FY24 -9%FY25 6%

It earned about -8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+52% shares · 5y

Share count is up 52% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 59% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.36 and $29.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$37.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$37.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$4.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.31
Base20.0%$14.36
Bull20.0%$14.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010376 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011831 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001665988-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010376 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011831 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001665988-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010376 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011831 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001665988-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010376 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011831 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001665988-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-010151 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010376 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011831 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001665988-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-010151 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010376 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011831 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001665988-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)