Burlington Stores, Inc.
BURLdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Burlington Stores, Inc. earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.93 and $54.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.31B1 | $8.68B2 | $9.71B3 | $10.6B3 | $11.5B3 |
| Net income | $230.1M4 | $230.1M4 | $339.6M5 | $503.6M5 | $610.2M5 |
| Operating cash flow | $833.2M6 | $596.4M7 | $868.7M8 | $863.4M8 | $1.23B8 |
| Capital expenditure | $352.5M9 | $447.4M10 | $492.6M11 | $880.4M11 | $1.06B11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $480.7M6 | $149M7 | $376.1M8 | −$17M8 | $171.6M8 |
| Total debt | $1.53B12 | $1.49B13 | $1.39B14 | $1.7B15 | $2.08B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.09B17 | $872.6M18 | $925.4M19 | $994.7M20 | $1.23B20 |
| Diluted shares | 68.1M | 65.9M | 64.9M | 64.6M | 64.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $281.83 of net worth that earned you $95.15 and generated $26.76 of cash last year, against $324.09 of debt.
It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 36% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.93 and $54.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth4.8%
- fcfBase$171.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth4.8%
- fcfBase$171.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$339.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $25.04 |
| Base | 4.8% | $33.93 |
| Bull | 9.8% | $44.93 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 4.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-032207 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-040472 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-116001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-25-040472 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-116001 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-032207 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-040472 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-116001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-032207 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-040472 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-116001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-22-003963 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-23-007586 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-24-032207 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000950170-25-040472 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2026-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116001 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-007586 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-032207 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-040472 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-116001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)