MeritValue

Burford Capital Ltd

BURdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Burford Capital Ltd earns about 9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$152.2M1$319.2M2$1.09B3$546.1M3$413.4M3
Net income−$28.8M4$30.5M5$610.5M6$146.5M6$62.6M6
Operating cash flow−$585.4M7−$466.1M8−$274.7M9$216.7M9−$29M9
Capital expenditure$285,00010$407,00011$3.21M12$661,00012$284,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$585.6M7−$466.5M8−$277.9M9$216.1M9−$29.3M9
Total debt$1.04B13$1.27B13$1.53B14$1.76B15$2.13B15
Cash & equivalents$180.3M16$107.7M17$220.5M18$469.9M19$566.4M19
Diluted shares219.0M221.8M223.0M223.2M224.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$109.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.79
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$94.75

10 shares is a claim on $109.01 of net worth that earned you $2.79 and generated −$1.3 of cash last year, against $94.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 6%FY23 23%FY24 9%FY25 5%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 105% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$2.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-004552 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714174-25-000055 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714174-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714174-24-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714174-25-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714174-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714174-24-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714174-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714174-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714174-24-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714174-25-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714174-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714174-24-000046 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714174-25-000055 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001714174-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714174-23-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714174-24-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714174-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001714174-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)