MeritValue

Webull Corp

BULLdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Webull Corp earns about 2% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 195% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.39 and $67.36 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$388.3M1$389.6M2$390.2M2$571M2
Net income$50.1M3$6.07M4−$22.7M4$24.8M4
Operating cash flow−$31.2M5$470.6M6$185.2M6$566.4M6
Capital expenditure$31.6M7$4.54M8$2.41M8$4.89M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$62.8M5,7$466.1M6,8$182.8M6,8$561.5M6,8
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$436.2M9$372.3M10$270.7M11$653.2M11
Diluted shares134.5M138.0M138.8M397.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.14
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $25.6 of net worth that earned you $0.62 and generated $14.14 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
2% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 2%

It earned about 2% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+195% shares · 4y

Share count is up 195% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.39 and $67.36 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$67.36
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period10 years
  • FCF growth20.0%
  • Starting free cash flow$466.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.88
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period5 years
  • FCF growth20.0%
  • Starting free cash flow$466.1M
Earnings Power Value
$0.39
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$15.4M
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.27%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.59
Base20.0%$37.88
Bull20.0%$37.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F filed 2025-04-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F filed 2026-04-09 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F filed 2025-04-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F filed 2026-04-09 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F filed 2025-04-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F filed 2026-04-09 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F filed 2025-04-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F filed 2026-04-09 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F filed 2025-04-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  10. 20-F filed 2025-04-25 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 20-F filed 2026-04-09 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)