Webull Corp
BULLdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Webull Corp earns about 2% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 195% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.4 and $71.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $388.3M1 | $389.6M2 | $390.2M2 | $571M2 |
| Net income | $50.1M3 | $6.07M4 | −$22.7M4 | $24.8M4 |
| Operating cash flow | −$31.2M5 | $470.6M6 | $185.2M6 | $566.4M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $31.6M7 | $4.54M8 | $2.41M8 | $4.89M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$62.8M5 | $466.1M6 | $182.8M6 | $561.5M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $436.2M9 | $372.3M10 | $270.7M11 | $653.2M11 |
| Diluted shares | 134.5M | 138.0M | 138.8M | 397.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $25.6 of net worth that earned you $0.62 and generated $14.14 of cash last year.
It earned about 2% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 195% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.4 and $71.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$466.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$466.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$15.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $18.42 |
| Base | 20.0% | $39.92 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $39.92 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035656 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041653 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)