MeritValue

BUTLER NATIONAL CORP

BUKSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BUTLER NATIONAL CORP earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $2 and $6.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$71.5M1$75.2M2$78.4M3$84M4$98M4
Net income$10.4M5$4.52M6$12.5M7$12.6M8$21.9M8
Operating cash flow$11.2M9$20.9M10$7.54M11$18.4M12$25.8M12
Capital expenditure$9.58M13$6.51M14$8.74M15$8.26M16$6.54M16
Free cash flow (derived)$1.6M9$14.4M10−$1.2M11$10.1M12$19.2M12
Total debt$97.2M17$86.8M18$76.2M19$70.3M20$58.9M20
Cash & equivalents———$25.2M21$35.1M21
Diluted shares75.3M76.5M70.4M67.8M65.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.07

10 shares is a claim on $12.62 of net worth that earned you $3.38 and generated $2.96 of cash last year, against $9.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY22 10%FY23 5%FY24 11%FY25 13%FY26 22%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 39% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2 and $6.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.2%
  • fcfBase$10.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.2%
  • fcfBase$10.1M
Earnings Power Value
$2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.86
Base16.2%$4.02
Bull20.0%$4.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-23-021098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-023270 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-034206 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000015847-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-23-021098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-023270 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-034206 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000015847-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-23-021098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-023270 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-034206 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000015847-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-23-021098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-023270 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-034206 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000015847-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-23-021098 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-023270 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-034206 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000015847-26-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000015847-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)