MeritValue

PEABODY ENERGY CORP

BTUdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PEABODY ENERGY CORP earns about 37% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.98 and $34.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.32B1$4.98B2$4.95B3$4.24B3$3.86B3
Net income$371.4M4$1.32B5$815.6M6$403.5M6−$42.5M6
Operating cash flow$420M7$1.17B8$1.04B9$606.5M9$333.7M9
Capital expenditure$183.1M10$221.5M11$348.3M12$401.3M12$411.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$236.9M7$952.1M8$687.2M9$205.2M9−$77.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$954.3M13$1.31B14$969.3M15$700.4M16$575.3M16
Diluted shares112.0M157.2M154.3M141.9M121.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$290.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.49
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.38
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $290.34 of net worth that earned you −$3.49 and generated −$6.38 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
37% avg · 5y
FY21 64%FY22 74%FY23 33%FY24 15%FY25 0%

It earned about 37% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.98 and $34.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$205.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$28.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$205.2M
Earnings Power Value
$34.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$403.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $28.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.79
Base0.0%$28.79
Bull5.0%$34.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001064728-24-000021 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001064728-25-000018 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001064728-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001064728-24-000021 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001064728-25-000018 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001064728-26-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001064728-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001064728-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001064728-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001064728-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001064728-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001064728-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001064728-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001064728-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001064728-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001064728-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)