MeritValue

Armlogi Holding Corp.

BTOCdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Armlogi Holding Corp. earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$135M1$167M2$190.4M2
Net income$13.9M3$7.44M4−$15.3M4
Operating cash flow$11.8M5$2.99M6$1.46M6
Capital expenditure$1.81M7$5.21M8$2.89M8
Free cash flow (derived)$9.99M5−$2.22M6−$1.43M6
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$6.56M9$7.89M10$9.19M10
Diluted shares40.0M40.2M41.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.34
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6 of net worth that earned you −$3.67 and generated −$0.34 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 3y
FY23 74%FY24 24%FY25 -84%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 3y

Share count is up 5% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.44M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-081967 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-091684 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-081967 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-091684 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-081967 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-091684 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-081967 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-091684 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-081967 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-091684 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)