MeritValue

B2GOLD CORP

BTGdata completeness 75%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

B2GOLD CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$420.1M1$252.9M2$10.1M3−$629.9M4$401.9M4
Operating cash flow$724.1M5$595.8M6$714.5M7$877.6M8$895.8M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$75.1M9$57.2M10$192.1M11$437.9M11$598.3M11
Cash & equivalents$673M12$651.9M13$306.9M14$337M14$380.4M14
Diluted shares1.06B1.07B1.30B1.32B1.34B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$26.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.46

10 shares is a claim on $26.81 of net worth that earned you $3 last year, against $4.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 12%FY23 4%FY24 -8%FY25 13%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 696% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$252.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-007087 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-034694 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006466 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026310 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-007087 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-034694 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006466 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026310 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-034694 (Borrowings)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006466 (Borrowings)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026310 (Borrowings)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-034694 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006466 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026310 (CashAndCashEquivalents)