The thesis, from the filings
Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF earns about 21% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $01 | $02 |
| Net income | $406.1M3 | −$72.3M3 |
| Operating cash flow | −$321.5M4 | $111.1M4 |
| Capital expenditure | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $05 | $05 |
| Diluted shares | — | — |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
21% avg · 2y
FY24 56%FY25 -13%
It earned an average 21% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 2y
Not enough history to read capital allocation.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029444 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083572 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083572 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083572 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083572 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)