MeritValue

BT Brands, Inc.

BTBDdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BT Brands, Inc. earns about -4% on invested capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$8.45M1$12.6M2$14.1M3$14.1M2$14.8M3
Net income$607,8514−$562,2855−$887,3686−$887,3686−$2.31M6
Operating cash flow$813,9557$211,7988−$258,7879−$258,7879−$723,5059
Capital expenditure$207,92010$478,39611$488,38812$488,38812$494,06412
Free cash flow (derived)$606,0357−$266,5988−$747,1759−$747,1759−$1.22M9
Total debt$6.05M13$5.69M14$4.94M15$4.94M15$4.4M15
Cash & equivalents$12.4M16$2.15M17$5.3M17$5.3M17$1.95M17
Diluted shares6.4M6.4M6.2M6.2M6.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.76
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.15

10 shares is a claim on $11.32 of net worth that earned you −$3.76 and generated −$1.98 of cash last year, against $7.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY22 17%FY23 -4%FY23 -8%FY23 -8%FY24 -17%

It earned an average -4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 27% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001477932-23-002705 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001477932-24-001711 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001477932-25-002248 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001477932-23-002705 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001477932-24-001711 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001477932-25-002248 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001477932-23-002705 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001477932-24-001711 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-002248 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001477932-23-002705 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001477932-24-001711 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-002248 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001477932-23-002705 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001477932-24-001711 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-002248 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001477932-24-001711 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001477932-25-002248 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)