MeritValue

BENTLEY SYSTEMS INC

BSYdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BENTLEY SYSTEMS INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.24 and $57.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$965M1$1.1B2$1.23B3$1.35B3$1.5B3
Net income$93.2M4$174.8M5$326.8M6$234.8M6$277.9M6
Operating cash flow$288M7$274.3M8$416.7M9$435.3M9$538.5M9
Capital expenditure$17.5M10$18.5M11$25M12$14M12$18.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$270.5M7$255.8M8$391.7M9$421.2M9$520.2M9
Total debt$2.87B13$3.56B14$3.06B15$2.78B16$2.5B16
Cash & equivalents$329.3M17$71.7M18$68.4M19$64M20$123.3M20
Diluted shares314.6M331.8M332.5M333.8M333.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$74.99

10 shares is a claim on $35.71 of net worth that earned you $8.34 and generated $15.62 of cash last year, against $74.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 8%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.24 and $57.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.1%
  • fcfBase$421.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.1%
  • fcfBase$421.2M
Earnings Power Value
$7.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$234.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.7
Base18.1%$30.62
Bull20.0%$33.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031308-24-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031308-25-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031308-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031308-24-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031308-25-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031308-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031308-24-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031308-25-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031308-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031308-24-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031308-25-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031308-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005568 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031308-24-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031308-25-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001031308-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005568 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031308-24-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031308-25-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001031308-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)