MeritValue

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP

BSXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.94 and $104.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.9B1$12.7B2$14.2B3$16.7B3$20.1B3
Net income$1.04B4$698M5$1.59B6$1.85B6$2.89B6
Operating cash flow$1.87B7$1.53B8$2.5B9$3.44B9$4.53B9
Capital expenditure$554M10$588M11$711M12$790M12$876M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.32B7$938M8$1.79B9$2.65B9$3.66B9
Total debt$261M13$20M14$531M15$1.78B16$299M16
Cash & equivalents$1.93B17$928M18$865M19$414M19$1.97B19
Diluted shares1.43B1.44B1.46B1.49B1.49B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$162.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$2

10 shares is a claim on $162.15 of net worth that earned you $19.35 and generated $24.48 of cash last year, against $2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 6%FY23 10%FY24 9%FY25 14%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.94 and $104.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$104.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.65B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$57.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.65B
Earnings Power Value
$10.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.59B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $57.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.07
Base20.0%$57.99
Bull20.0%$57.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000885725-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000885725-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000885725-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000885725-24-000017 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000885725-25-000011 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000885725-26-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000885725-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000885725-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000885725-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000885725-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000885725-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000885725-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000885725-23-000008 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000885725-24-000017 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000885725-25-000011 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000885725-26-000010 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000885725-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000885725-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000885725-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)