MeritValue

Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc.

BSTTdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. earns about -5% on equity, but has diluted owners by 34% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.7B1$7.65B2$8.93B3$8.53B3$7.96B3
Net income−$804.8M4−$883.5M5−$691.8M6−$890.5M6−$3.28B6
Operating cash flow$1.78B7$2.73B8$2.71B9$2.09B9$2.29B9
Capital expenditure$576.3M10$1.31B11$1.49B12$1.14B12$1.22B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.21B7$1.42B8$1.21B9$950.5M9$1.07B9
Total debt$41.3B13$65B14$61.7B15$58.5B16$55.5B16
Cash & equivalents$989.7M17$1.28B18$1.95B19$1.93B19$1.61B19
Diluted shares2.65B4.33B4.41B3.82B3.56B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$54.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$156.15

10 shares is a claim on $54.35 of net worth that earned you −$9.23 and generated $3.01 of cash last year, against $156.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -2%FY23 -2%FY24 -3%FY25 -17%

It earned an average -5% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+34% shares · 5y

Share count is up 34% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 34% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.07B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.07B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662972-22-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662972-25-000027 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662972-26-000032 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662972-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662972-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662972-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662972-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662972-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662972-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662972-24-000036 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662972-25-000027 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662972-26-000032 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662972-23-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662972-24-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662972-25-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001662972-26-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662972-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662972-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662972-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)