MeritValue

Braze, Inc.

BRZEdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Braze, Inc. earns about -74% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 209% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.01 and $5.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$238M1$355.4M2$471.8M3$593.4M3$738.2M3
Net income−$76.7M4−$139M5−$129.2M6−$103.7M6−$131.3M6
Operating cash flow−$35.4M7−$22.3M8$6.85M9$36.7M9$71.4M9
Capital expenditure$2.31M10$15.4M11$9.76M12$13.2M12$9.59M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$37.7M7−$37.8M8−$2.91M9$23.4M9$61.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$478.9M13$68.6M14$68.2M15$83.1M16$124.3M16
Diluted shares34.9M94.6M98.1M102.2M107.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$57.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $57.81 of net worth that earned you −$12.17 and generated $5.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-74% avg · 5y
FY22 -273%FY23 -29%FY24 -27%FY25 -20%FY26 -20%

It earned about -74% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+209% shares · 5y

Share count is up 209% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.01 and $5.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$23.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$23.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.26
Base5.0%$5.01
Bull10.0%$5.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001676238-24-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001676238-25-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001676238-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001676238-24-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001676238-25-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001676238-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001676238-24-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001676238-25-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001676238-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001676238-24-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001676238-25-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001676238-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001676238-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001676238-24-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001676238-25-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001676238-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)