MeritValue

Brixmor Property Group Inc.

BRXdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Brixmor Property Group Inc. earns about 11% on equity, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.15B1$1.22B2$1.25B3$1.29B3$1.37B3
Net income$270.2M4$354.2M5$305.1M6$339.3M6$386.2M6
Operating cash flow$552.2M7$566.4M8$588.8M9$624.7M9$652M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt———$5.34B10$5.49B10
Cash & equivalents$296.6M11$16.5M12$866,00013$377.6M13$334.4M13
Diluted shares298.8M301.7M302.4M304.0M307.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$97.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.55
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$178.48

10 shares is a claim on $97.76 of net worth that earned you $12.55 last year, against $178.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
11% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 12%FY23 11%FY24 11%FY25 13%

It earned an average 11% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$11.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$339.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581068-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581068-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581068-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581068-24-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581068-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581068-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581068-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581068-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581068-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001581068-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581068-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581068-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581068-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)