MeritValue

Brightstar Lottery PLC

BRSLdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Brightstar Lottery PLC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.33 and $72.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.09B1$2.6B2$2.53B3$2.51B3$2.51B3
Net income$482M4$275M5$156M6$348M6$147M6
Operating cash flow$978M7$899M8$1.01B9$1.05B9−$99M9
Capital expenditure$238M10$162M11$147M12$149M12$316M12
Free cash flow (derived)$740M7$737M8$865M9$901M9−$415M9
Total debt$6.53B13$5.75B14$5.67B15$5.36B16$4.18B16
Cash & equivalents$591M17$590M18$508M19$584M20$1.45B20
Diluted shares207.0M203.0M203.0M204.0M197.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$44.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.46
Free cash flow it threw off
−$21.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$212.08

10 shares is a claim on $44.42 of net worth that earned you $7.46 and generated −$21.07 of cash last year, against $212.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 12%FY23 6%FY24 6%FY25 7%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 36% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.33 and $72.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$72.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.5%
  • fcfBase$865M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$64.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.5%
  • fcfBase$865M
Earnings Power Value
$14.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$275M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.5%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $64.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$48.04
Base5.5%$64.59
Bull10.5%$82.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001619762-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001619762-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001619762-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001619762-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001619762-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001619762-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001619762-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001619762-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011083 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001619762-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001619762-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001619762-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011083 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001619762-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001619762-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001619762-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)