Dutch Bros Inc.
BROSdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Dutch Bros Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 174% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.14 and $2.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $497.9M1 | $739M2 | $965.8M3 | $1.28B3 | $1.64B3 |
| Net income | −$12.7M4 | −$4.75M5 | $1.72M6 | $35.3M6 | $79.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $80.4M7 | $59.9M8 | $139.9M9 | $246.4M9 | $295.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $118.4M10 | $187.9M11 | $228.5M12 | $221.7M12 | $241.1M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$38.1M7 | −$128M8 | −$88.5M9 | $24.7M9 | $54.4M9 |
| Total debt | $7.21M13 | $198.9M14 | $196.7M15 | $475.1M16 | $402.6M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $18.5M17 | $20.2M18 | $133.5M19 | $293.4M20 | $269.4M20 |
| Diluted shares | 45.9M | 51.9M | 62.1M | 104.1M | 125.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $54.13 of net worth that earned you $6.35 and generated $4.33 of cash last year, against $32.02 of debt.
It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 174% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 5483% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.14 and $2.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$24.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$24.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.72M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $1.75 |
| Base | 5.0% | $2.43 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $3.24 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866581-24-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866581-25-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866581-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866581-24-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866581-25-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866581-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866581-24-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866581-25-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866581-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866581-24-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866581-25-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866581-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866581-23-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866581-24-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866581-25-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001866581-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866581-23-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866581-24-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866581-25-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001866581-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)