MeritValue

BROWN & BROWN, INC.

BROdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BROWN & BROWN, INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.72 and $73.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.05B1$3.57B2$4.26B3$4.81B3$5.9B3
Net income$587.1M4$672M5$871M6$993M6$1.05B6
Operating cash flow$808.8M7$881M8$1.01B9$1.17B9$1.45B9
Capital expenditure$45M10$52M11$69M12$82M12$68M12
Free cash flow (derived)$763.8M7$829M8$941M9$1.09B9$1.38B9
Total debt$4.05B13$7.88B14$7.59B15$7.65B16$15.2B16
Cash & equivalents$693.2M17$650M18$700M19$675M19$1.08B19
Diluted shares277.4M279.0M281.0M284.0M313.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$401.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$486.45

10 shares is a claim on $401.69 of net worth that earned you $33.67 and generated $44.15 of cash last year, against $486.45 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 7%FY23 8%FY24 7%FY25 4%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 276% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.72 and $73.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$73.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.7%
  • fcfBase$1.09B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$39.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.7%
  • fcfBase$1.09B
Earnings Power Value
$28.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$871M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$51.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $39.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.35
Base12.7%$39.37
Bull17.7%$57.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018890 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019039 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046984 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018890 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046984 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018890 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046984 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018890 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046984 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004717 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018890 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046984 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018890 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046984 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)