MeritValue

Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.

BRLTdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. earns about 3% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 85% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.41 and $17.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$380.2M1$439.9M2$446.4M3$422.2M4$437.5M4
Net income$1.53M5$2.14M6$584,0007$541,0008−$3.64M8
Operating cash flow$46.1M9$14.5M10$26.2M11$17.6M12$9.72M12
Capital expenditure$5.61M13$9.12M14$11.9M15$4.91M16$3.97M16
Free cash flow (derived)$40.5M9$5.38M10$14.3M11$12.7M12$5.75M12
Total debt$127.2M17$125.4M18$119.3M19$111.4M20$020
Cash & equivalents$172.9M21$154.6M22$155.8M23$161.9M24$79.1M24
Diluted shares—96.5M97.1M98.4M14.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $8.34 of net worth that earned you −$2.46 and generated $3.9 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 20%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 -30%

It earned about 3% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−85% shares · 5y

Share count is down 85% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.41 and $17.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.7M
Earnings Power Value
$0.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$584,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.49
Base0.0%$17.49
Bull5.0%$20.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866757-23-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866757-24-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866757-25-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018794 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866757-23-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866757-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866757-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018794 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866757-23-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866757-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866757-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018794 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866757-23-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866757-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866757-25-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018794 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866757-23-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866757-24-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866757-25-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018794 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001866757-23-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001866757-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866757-25-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018794 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)